Identifying Playing Model of Tigres From a Probabilistic Perspective
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29105/rce-fod.v21i1.160Keywords:
football, playing model, tactical analysis, probabilistic models, Hidden Markov Models.Abstract
Objective: to identify the playing model of the professional football club Tigres during the 2024–2025 period, comprising the Apertura 2024 and Clausura 2025 tournaments. Methods: the identification is approached from a probabilistic perspective using Hidden Markov Models, which are suitable for modeling underlying unobserved Markov processes. A total of 15 performance variables were analyzed, including ball possession, fouls, corner kicks, crosses, touches, tackles, interceptions, aerial duels won, clearances, long balls, offsides, goal kicks, throw-ins, yellow cards, and red cards. Results: three distinct playing models were identified, classified as positional dominance, defensive retreat, and direct attack. During the study period, the team had two head coaches, each predominantly associated with a particular playing model. Conclusions: the results confirm the relevance of Hidden Markov Models for identifying latent tactical structures in professional football. This approach provides a robust probabilistic framework for analyzing collective team behavior, contributing to longitudinal performance analysis and supporting more informed tactical decision-making.
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