Longitudinal Trajectories of Body Composition and Blood Pressure in University Workers: A Linear Mixed Model Analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29105/rce-fod.v21i1.183Keywords:
occupational health, linear mixed models, systolic blood pressure, fat mass, longitudinal trajectoriesAbstract
Purpose: To determine whether longitudinal trajectories of body fat percentage (%BF) predict concurrent changes in systolic blood pressure (SBP) in middle-aged university workers, and to quantify between- and within-subject variability in both markers using linear mixed models (LMM).
Methods: An observational longitudinal design was conducted with 50 workers from Universidad Veracruzana assessed across up to eight visits (143 observations for SBP; 156 for %BF). Body composition was evaluated using bioelectrical impedance analysis, and SBP was measured through standardized automated sphygmomanometry. Two LMMs were fitted with random intercepts by subject and time modeled as an ordered factor with polynomial contrasts (lme4, lmerTest), with p-values calculated using the Satterthwaite approximation.
Results: SBP showed high within-subject stability (conditional R² = 0.732; marginal R² = 0.048), with no significant longitudinal changes (β = 0.93, 95% CI [−9.21, 11.07], p = .856). %BF did not predict SBP (β = 0.29 mmHg per 1%, 95% CI [−0.12, 0.70], p = .161). %BF also showed no significant longitudinal change after controlling for age and sex (p = .255); sex was the only significant fixed predictor (β = 8.85% higher in women, 95% CI [3.87, 13.82], p < .001).
Conclusions: SBP exhibits marked between-subject stability (~72% of the variance) and does not respond to concurrent fluctuations in %BF. This dissociation suggests an accumulated structural vascular component that limits hemodynamic plasticity and indicates that workplace wellness programs should incorporate arterial stiffness markers and longer time windows to capture cardiovascular benefits.
ody composition was assessed by bioelectrical impedance analysis, and SBP was measured using standardized automated sphygmomanometry. Two LMMs with random intercepts per subject and time modeled as an ordered factor were fitted using polynomial contrasts (lme4, lmerTest). P-values were calculated using the Satterthwaite approximation, and the variance explained was calculated using marginal and conditional R² (Nakagawa & Schielzeth, 2013).
Results: SBP showed high intraindividual stability (conditional R² = 0.732; marginal R² = 0.048), with no significant longitudinal changes: linear time_point β = 0.93, 95% CI [−9.21, 11.07], p = 0.856. %BF did not predict SBP (β = 0.29 mmHg per 1%, 95% CI [−0.12, 0.70], p = 0.161). %BF exhibited a smaller random component (conditional R² = 0.836; marginal R² = 0.159) with no significant longitudinal change after controlling for age and sex (linear time_point p = 0.255). Sex was the only significant fixed predictor (β = 8.85% higher in women, 95% CI [3.87, 13.82], p < .001).
Conclusions: In middle-aged university workers, systolic blood pressure (SBP) shows marked stability between subjects (~72% of the variance) and does not respond to concurrent fluctuations in body fat percentage (%BF) during the observed follow-up. This dissociation is consistent with an accumulated vascular structural component that restricts hemodynamic plasticity in the short and medium term, and suggests that workplace wellness programs should incorporate markers of arterial stiffness and extended time windows to capture cardiovascular benefit.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Carlos Manuel Chacón-Rodríguez, Edith Arlahe Perez-García, Giovani Camacho-Tristán, Ricardo Ochoa-Torres, Pablo Tadeo Ríos-Gallardo
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